Trading & Quant Research 2025
imst-quant
GNN-powered sentiment trading pipeline
The problem
Naive sentiment-from-social-media trading treats every post as equally informative, but a post from an author with a track record of being right should count for a lot more than one from a random account.
The approach
Built a medallion-architecture data lake (raw to bronze to silver to gold) that ingests Reddit and market data, scores author influence with a graph neural network trained on historical accuracy and trust networks, and feeds influence-weighted sentiment into a forecasting model and a backtester that accounts for realistic transaction costs.
imst-quant is a research pipeline for sentiment-driven trading that treats “whose sentiment” as seriously as “what sentiment.” Instead of averaging Reddit posts into a single signal, it learns which authors are actually worth listening to.
data lake
Reddit and market data flow through a medallion architecture:
- Raw - unprocessed ingestion from the Reddit API and market data feeds.
- Bronze - cleaned, deduplicated, schema-validated.
- Silver - joined and enriched (author history, ticker mentions, price context).
- Gold - feature tables ready for modeling.
influence scoring with GNNs
Rather than trusting every post equally, a graph neural network scores each author’s influence using historical prediction accuracy and their position in a trust network (who engages with, agrees with, or amplifies whom).
# author_graph: nodes = authors, edges = interaction/trust signals
influence_scores = gnn_model(author_graph, node_features=historical_accuracy)
weighted_sentiment = raw_sentiment * influence_scores[author_id]
forecasting and backtesting
Influence-weighted sentiment feeds a forecasting model, and every strategy is evaluated through a backtester that models realistic transaction costs - slippage and fees, not idealized fills - so backtest performance isn’t inflated by trading frictions that don’t exist in the real market.
status
This is a research pipeline: the data lake, GNN influence scoring, and cost-aware backtester are built; ongoing work is on forecasting model quality and strategy evaluation across market regimes.
What I took away
- Author-level signal quality varies enormously - weighting sentiment by a learned influence score beats treating all posts equally.
- A medallion data lake (raw/bronze/silver/gold) keeps a messy, high-volume social feed reproducible and debuggable at every stage.
- Backtests that ignore transaction costs are close to meaningless for a strategy built on high-frequency sentiment signals.
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